Estimated Backup size much larger than actual

Hi All,

I noticed my backups have recently reduced in size from 107 MB to 29 MB. In the backup settings menu, the estimated size is 107 MB, but when I go to create the backup, the actual size is 29 MB. Has anyone else noticed this? Has there been backup optimizations in the lastest Home Assistant Core 2026.3 release? Thanks.

I’m experiencing something similar with Core 2026.3.1 / Supervisor 2026.02.3 / OS 17.1 where the estimated backup size for settings + history + media + share folder + all apps is 268.55 MB, yet the backup is actually only 146.21 MB.

Also, even though I haven’t changed any backup settings, each backup is getting progressively smaller… the backup before the latest one is 154.32 MB and the one before that is 161.8 MB.

Is there a way to sanity check the backup?
I don’t want to be caught with an unusable backup.