Wow, thats a lot you did and found out!
I finally surrendered and bought the RPI SSD and the official HAT because I was tired of further investing more time.
Your point with the signal cable may be valid! I was/am an embedded SW engineer and my gut feelings told me exactly that. When the problems got worse here I suspected that cable. So I disassembled everything, checked that cable, turned it on again and the problems visible during startup were all gone.
Initially I was happy but already after closing the housing/fixing the screws and putting the RPI to its right location it did not even boot anymore. So for me this just looked like a problem regarding signal quality, depending on unknown factors. So I strongly believe in your theory.
Another finding I had was: during this time I had a display connected to the housing, so I could monitor the logs from time to time. I never connected a display before. But now my RPI had suddenly massive trouble connecting to the WiFi. As soon as I detached the display cable again everything was fine again.
My lesson learned from this whole thing is, that I would never use an RPI again for this purpose. We want to have a stable HA and it is extremely annoying to explain your wife why the bathroom remains cold.
Taking all the money I invested in new PSUs, HATs, SSDs I could have afforded a most likely more stable Mini PC with even some money left, taking my wife out for dinner, aka saying sorry for the cold bathroom ![]()
