Unable to reach HA webserver on fresh install

I do a fresh install of HA 5.4 on my RPi4B, with boot from SSD. I can watch it boot from the screen. I see only green text, and it seems to boot fine, except that it complains that the microSD card is not there, and that there is no IPv6 on my network. However, it never shows the web GUI at http://IP-address:8123, or using https. Everything is fresh install because the old system got corrupted, and could not be repaired for some reason. I have backup files, but cannot do much with them without reaching the webserver.

How do I debug this?

EDIT: I just tried a 64bit version of HA (4.15) on the SD card and got the same result. BTW, this post started as a comment on a post in the Community Guides. If it is a bad idea for this as a post, let me know and will delete this.

Can you see if its connected in your routers connected devices page? The IP address assigned to it may have changed

Yeah, it is connected according to opnsense and unifi controller, and I can ping it.

Nmap says that no ports on the pi are available. This does not happen when I boot up on RaspberryOS. Only on HA.