I’ve been having a look at my Bayesian sensors. It’s a while since I set them up, but I notice that in all of your observations prob_given_true and prob_given_false added together give a number > 1. In mine the sum of the two is always <= 1. Which sort of makes sense intuitively.
# Phone in kitchen -------------------------------------------------------------
- platform: "state"
entity_id: "sensor.nokia_area"
to_state: "Kitchen"
# Phone often gets left elsewhere
prob_given_true: 0.33
prob_given_false: 0.02
Have you looked at this post? It’s quite old, but it provides spreadsheets for working out the observations.