Calculate when sensor will reach certain value based on current trend

I’m trying to figure out when my a sensor (in this case a BBQ probe) will reach a certain threshold value based on current trend.

thinking i need to setup some kind of derivative sensor to get the rate of change
then setup a template sensor that would do (target temp - current temp)/rate of change.

but i’m having a hard time wrapping my mind around it.

So start with the sensor and see what that gives you.

Here’s a post where I posted my solution to an equivalent question: