Can't get forecast.solar forecast to line up with my production

How do you run Home Assistant?

I’m also facing some strange behaviour. 2 Directions, South (2.5 kWp) and West (5.8 kWp). Inverter can do 6kWp so i added these numbers to 2 services. I only see a max of ~4kW. Mornings and evenings are usually pretty correct.


calculating the forecast, for today it was ~36kWh, reality 49kWh.

Do i miss something ? location, Azimuth and declination are correct.
thanks for any hint

Hi,
I tried to access https://forecast.solar/ to get an API key, but it seems to be down. Am I trying to access the wrong site, or do they have problems right now?

Problems right now. My numbers have been unavailable all day.

3 Likes

Hi all,

New to the world of PVs and HA - but having fun learning.

I have added Forecast.Solar as an integration and created three services, Home-East, Home-North and Home-West for my three arrays. I have measured the declination of the arrays (22°) and azimuth (105°E, 15°N, 285°W).

East array - 7 panels @ 440 W = 3,080 W
North array - 11 panels @ 440 W = 4,840 W
West array - 5 panels @ 440 W = 2,200 W

The inverter is a GoodWe 8kW inverter.

I have entered the above values in the corresponding three services and included the three forecasts in my Solar Panels Energy graph.

image

I understand this is just an estimation of energy production, and not something I should ‘hang my hat on’, but still I thought it would be closer than this … (only able to add 1 image to this post … see image in next post).

If I enter the Total Watt Peak Power for my entire system in to each service (i.e. 10,120 watts) instead of the Total Watt Peak Power for each indvidual array the resulting prediction resembles more closely the actual energy generated … (only able to add 1 image to this post … see following posts for next image)

Am I misunderstanding how Forecast.Solar needs to be configured?

With Total Watt Peak Power set to individual peak power for each array (3080, 4840 and 2200 W)

With Total Watt Peak Power on each of the three services set to total peak power for entire system (i.e. 10,120 W) …

Probably not. After years of trying everything to get a good match, I find for myself that the solar forecast integration this year is almost consistently half actual generated in summer and double actual in winter.

Solcast, on the other hand, is running at 90-105% actual to forecast, day after day.

Here is yesterday and today…

For yesterday:
forecast.solar, up to 09:00, gave a total forecast for the day ahead of 11.2
Solcast, at 02:00, gave a total forecast for the day of 16.1

The actual generated was 15.2, hence Solcast was 94%, and forecast.solar was 136% (actual/forecast).

I think that the figures speak for themselves.