The thing you have NOT been showing is the logs of when you used a direct (USB or serial) connection showing the programming AND startup of esphome on the device.
The last log you provided was trying to do it over the network, which won’t work if the device is not connected to the network.
The previous log showed the esp did NOT get an address from your router.
You have not stated what kind of router you have or what your wireless network contains. It is likely your wireless network is in an unhealthy state, based on the results you have posted.