Analytics analysis: Observations on upgrade trends

In the past, I’ve wondered what % of people upgrade immediately vs. how many wait, and how long they wait. With the introduction of in 2021.4, it became possible to kinda see it, but that site doesn’t show the upgrade trends/history. So, I started collecting a snapshot once a day beginning when 2021.5 was released.

Same data as above, stacked:

Some comments:

  • About 10k installs are upgraded within 2-3 days of EVERY release (major or dot release).
  • Yet it isn’t the same 10k people doing all that upgrading. Many thousands will upgrade once and stay parked on a version for a long time…
  • … meaning that even now as 2021.7 is about to be released, well over 30% of the installs are NOT running /any/ version of 2021.6.
  • Two weird things happened right before the 2021.6.2 release (about 7 June):
    1. The rate (slope) of “total installs” shifted drastically
    2. After having been very stable for a month, 2021.4 installs abruptly started falling. I assume they were upgrades, but there’s no way to be certain. It’s strange in that it’s consistent: about 500 per day And double strange that it’s staggered, meaning that first it was 2021.4.0 systems , then 2021.4.1, then 2021.4.2, and so on, all the way up to 2021.4.6 – as you can see in the graph below.

I really haven’t come up with a great theory to explain either of the weird observations.

Note: the above is using a log scale.

If you’d like to see or copy the raw data, it’s on the last tab here:

Raw data notes:

  • The green data is the staggered upgrades happening
  • The “upgrades” columns assumes that nobody is uninstalling or turning off analytics. This obviously isn’t true, but presumably it’s small enough it can be ignored
  • I still have the daily .json files that I could upload or transfer if someone is interested in this going forward. This was interesting, but I don’t have any plans to do further graphing.
1 Like

Hello, some notes to my updates:

  • I always upgrade ASAP, but i found, that .1 version sometimes have “some problems” which are fixed in next release. Now I ignore .1 version.
  • Changes in Modbus - old config was deprecated too fast. I don’t read logs, when everything works after update, so I miss warning about “deprecated config”. I update to .6 and my 100 sensors/switches stops working. I don’t have time to fix config ASAP and I need working house, so I restore snapshot with previous release. (Now I’m running .6)

You should read the logs after every update. How else would you know if you missed something that failed?

2021.6 is the first version that blocks addons without a version in the manifest, so I assume a good chunk of people are waiting for one of many seldomly updated addons to be updated. There are other changes as well, which can break certain workflows for people.

Case in point, I am still on 2021.5.4