So I thought, let’s take a look at long term price fluctuations per day, because that’s the only thing that makes it interesting to trade energy on a daily basis.
standard deviation is on the right Y-axis, minimum and maximum on the left Y-axis. Damn, look at the volatility on the electricity market, completely unreal if you compare since 2015.
Question is, will this stay this way? And thus make it interesting to invest in a home battery for trading?
Couple of things are new now of course, in relation to the situation since 2015.
- Corona hit;
- Nasty stuff in Europe;
- Green deal/energy transition, etc, etc.
So we can probably expect to have higher volatility in the future, but as high as we have now? mmm… I’m not to sure if we should base our economic model for home battery on current price volatility. Maybe take half of the price fluctuation we see now to calculate longer term profitability for trading energy with a home battery. Then we can use that to look at the technical write-off cost per discharge-cycle to determine when to trade, and when not to trade.
The thinking process continues!