Glad to have came across your post.
I Just learned about the entsoe database today and was enthusiastically waiting to get the API key.
I was really interested in the volatily and the price spikes that might occur.
Your graph reveals that you’re a fellow dutchie, so I decided to share my own view on this most intriguing option to help with the reduction of the current energy bill and the energie transition (If there are more batteries in residential areas then more effective PV usage doesn’t depend on the grid providers ability to increase the high voltage lines throughput making the grid more stable - if done right).
Since we have the same rules and regulations to contend with my input should be more applicable to you.
I’m currently building a battery back-up system (65Kwh capacity) with:
- 4 seplos diy rack kits (complete kit for which you only need to provide prismatic cells)
- 64 prismatic 320Ah eve cells (If searched for on alibaba you will be able to get around 117$ per kwh instead of >180$)
- 2 victron multiplus II 5000W inverters (due to my 40A - 230*40 = 9.200w - grid connection limit)
- Some breakers and ground fault protection devices to reduce the risks of something breaking (sized for my exact setup)
- 14 395 w jinko panels
- Solaredge se5000h
One important part of why I’m already in the process of building the battery is that the rules and regulations (as I was able to find in the 2e kamer documents) seem to perfectly align in the coming year for maximum return on investment, while minimizing the risk that you’re exposed to.
Next year there will be a price ceiling for 2900Kwh set at 0,4 euro.
Currently this still seems to be applicable for dynamic contracts (hence the reduced risk)
Because (and this is important and the reason why I mentioned my PV setup) on the other hand we still have 2 years of the “salderingsregeling” meaning that providers like tibber will fully refund taxes for all consumed Kwh up until when you start using more than you produced.
This allows us to calculate the round trip efficiency (I took an low estimated 85% on my sized system) and multiple that to the daily difference between the highest hours and the lowest hours pricing.
What I noticed is that the energy prices dip between 03:00 and 05:00 (of course not always but that can be smatified in automation) and between 12:00 and 15:00.
While the peaks fall in between around 07:00 - 09:00 and 17:00 - 19:00.
With 4 hours intake a cycle and 4 hourse discharging a cycle for 2 times a day with an average (calculated based on data that I got from the frank energy api over the last few weeks) of 0,15 cents return per Kwh on each round-trip.
Due to the modularity of my bms system I’m able to only replace the cells (which should last 4000 cycles at the least at my intended charge / discharge cycles) when the battery starts to degrade due to “age”.
Which is around 1/3 of the entire system cost.
Resulting in around 5 cents required to be made for each cycle (with only 4000 cycles max) to be net zero in usage costs. (disregarding the round-trip efficiency loss that I compensate with PV to prevent the “salderingsregeling” from reducing the profitability of the setup)
Meaning that with the 0,15 cents price difference it comes down to 2/3 profit and 1/3 cost of wear and tear. (also simplifying by not including the maintenance after multiple years off usage of the rest of the setup).
Meaning that making a profit with buying and selling energy is an valid option while also allowing you to get rid of the energy providers “variabel contract” absurly high prices (profit margins) and give the profit to yourself instead by allowing you to get energy when it is cheap. Use and sell it when prices are high and buffer your solar production in the battery bank for when the prices are highest (usually not when everybody is producing solar - who would have guessed)
This has the added benefit off reducing stress on the grid and instead of inverters shutting down (for you and your neighbour) due to high net voltage it would help reduce the grid voltage so that everybody wins.
Even if the impact of a single battery bank isn’t that big on the entire grid (with enough people doing it and a large enough battery bank to saturate your own grid supply) it will help.
And for when it doesn’t a programmable esp32 relay will provide an 230v 40A magnetic relais with an signal for my house to disconnect from the grid.
In that way at least the PV production doesn’t get wasted.
Since, the inverters will use their UPS functionality to keep the lights on.
The most difficult part is going to be creating an automation for when to sell and when to buy.
While also tracking the origin/cost of Kwh’s going in and prices when going out of your battery (for cost/savings/profit tracking purposes)
Since, this would need to consider PV production estimate, current consumption, average daily consumption from current time point, desired DOD %, whether next peak is the best moment to sell with all available data (for example currently “tanking” on sunday and selling on monday throughout the day is insanely profitable it seems) etc.
The more “complex” the automation the higher the return will be (and the more invisible savings will become visible) but also the higher the chances off a bug or unforeseen situation costing you money instead.
At the very least it is a fun hobby project to do and with the end of “salderingsregeling” in sight and my PV setup and the possibility to buy energy when it’s cheap will ensure that the system will eventually pay for itself.
Because even when hour prices become constant during the day you will still save on the VAT that you don’t have to pay by self consuming your solar output.
So it’s not a matter of if the setup will pay for itself but rather how long it will take.
Once you go down the rabbit hole, the thinking never stops!