Is there any risk to keep updating the firmware on my 15 ESPHome devices.
Is there any risk to running out of space down the track?
There is a risk. How much space do you have currently. I am not worried but I note that one of my nodes has a problem compiling with a specific sensor. It is on my list to upgrade to ESP32. if you are worried don’t update.
I have two esp-01 controlling garage doors
I did upgrade the memory to 4mb before installing them.
More than risk of getting out of space there’s a risk to module become non-functional. There are breaking changes occasionally, and an update can cause something to die…
I keep my esphome’s “don’t fix if it’s not broken” . I only update when i need to change or add something. Why update if all is working and you gain nothing….?
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It’s hard to find the willpower not to press that update button every so often.
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Just cjick Skip update 
although you have to do it again for each new release of ESPHome !
I just disable all “update” sensors from esphome modules the moment they appear when adding a new device. That annoying update warning was one of the worst mistakes of guys in NabuCasa…
This is good advice, but not the only reason to limit the amount of firmware updates. The flash memory on these devices suffer from wear due to writes. So frequent flashing decreases the lifetime of the hardware.
Even if you can get 10000 flash cycles it will out last most of us.
Ammm…
I’ve played a lot (and i mean A LOT!!!) with Atmel AVR’s back those days, now i tinker quite a lot with esp’s, too, but i didn’t experience a single fail because of that. Trust me, flash will outlast all of us, as Spiro said.
Just do a calculation: if you update your esp each day it’s only 365 flashes per year. In 10 years there’s only 3650 flashes, so theoretical limit is light years away… note also that 10.000 is only theoretical (safe) limit, in practice this limit is higher.
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We only have to get to the linux Epochalypse in 2038. Is it too far away to worry yet about ESP32? I was more concerned about relays in my thermostats opening more than ten times a day lasting only few years. 4 1/2 years so far and no problems.
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Haha…
perhaps i should mention that i did have some “kind of” flash failures at the past: when i destroyed/burned my AVR/esp chip with pin-short, overheating etc… 
In reality, there’s a waaay bigger chance of chip/module gets burned than flash to become bad. Especially when you tinker with it too much… 