Another thanks for the original post - I’m still don’t really understand this but the spreadsheet was really helpful together with the explanation. Thanks!
I created a few boolean input selectors and made a bayesian sensor based on these. It helped me better understand the explanation above when I could easily toggle the selectors and see how that affected the probability, instead of waiting for real life sensors to trigger, cool down and so forth.
I’m using most of my sensors (motion + a custom for my media players, to see if anything is playing) and two template sensors with delay_off setup like in one of the entries in this thread. Works great so far!