Where is my disk space going?

Nope. 32GB is the minimum amount of space required nowadays (referenced here for the Pi install, but applies for all installations).

You’ll need to bump up the storage space, especially if you’re using voice. I would also look into cleaning the build files for ESPHome - 8G of data is a bit too much. Try following the advice posted here and here.
Also, double check whether those 14GB of backups are only mounted in SMB, or if there’s also a copy being created locally in your Backup folder.